带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

西部卫星型小城镇工业用地基准地价测算方法研究——以兰州市皋兰县为例

小城镇工业用地基准地价评估是基准地价工作的难点,尤以西部地区更为典型.通过分析西部卫星型小城镇工业测算中遇到的问题,在利用住宅地价模型测算工业地价的思路指导下,借助级差系数法和比例系数法进行该地区工业地价模型比对.结果表明:当前基准地价测算方法并不完全适应于西部卫星型小城镇的实际情况,在此基础上提出模型调整法,并通过皋...     

非线性、分形与期锌市场价格

从非线性角度研究期锌市场，运用R/S分析法对期锌市场进行分析，发现期锌市场的Hurst指数为0.6183,其价格收益率序列是分维时间序列，具有分形结构，维数为1.6174。期锌市场的平均周期长度为176天，具有强持续性和相关性。关联系数为19.47%，远远大于国外相关市场。在风险方面，期锌市场的风险比期铜市场的要小，而比股票市场的风险要大。     

封闭循环水系统中养殖密度对大菱鲆生长和免疫的影响

研究了大菱鲆幼鱼在封闭循环水系统中养殖密度对其摄食、生长、饲料利用率及免疫机能的影响。实验设计了4组不同处理,初始养殖密度分别为0.66 kg/m2、1.26 kg/m2、2.56 kg/m2、4.00 kg/m2,每个密度组设3个重复,为期100 d,实验结束时养殖密度分别为4.67 kg/m2、7.25 kg/m2、14.16 kg/m2、17.77 kg/m2。结果表明:大菱鲆生长速度与养殖密度呈负相关,各实验组的持定生长率(SGR)值分别为2.67、2.33、2.29、1.98;随着养殖密度的增加,各实验组大菱鲆的体重差异度出现显著变化(P<0.01);大菱鲆的饵料系数与养殖密度呈正相关,实验组1的饵料系数为0.70;实验组4的饵料系数为0.76;养殖密度对大菱鲆的免疫指标碱性磷酸酶(AKP)、酸性磷酸酶(ACP)及肝脏的脏器系数的影响不大。本实验结果可为鱼类循环水工厂化养殖管理提供参考。     

基于分形视角的农村居民恩格尔系数变动趋势研究

恩格尔系数可以反映居民生活水平，也隐含着经济结构的信息。本文采用非线性定量分析工具——分形分析方法，通过各阶累计和将数据进行变换，建立变维分形模型，测算了1995～2008年我国农村居民恩格尔系数的变化趋势。研究表明，样本区间内农村居民恩格尔系数整体有降速放缓的趋势，前期降速显著，后期降速减缓；且依据模型测算显示未来5年内这种趋势将可能持续。最后，本文据此提出了简短的对策建议。     

GIS内外业一体化数据双向同步技术研究

对空间数据内外业一体化作业过程中数据双向同步技术进行研究。阐述GIS数据双向同步的原理、数据还原原理,提出了基于最优差异化机制的双向数据同步模型,并给出此模型基础上的技术实现案例。实践表明,此方案能很好地解决GIS内外业一体化的数据同步需求。     

Enhancing the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) approach for estimating landscape ET: Validation with the METRIC model

Evapotranspiration (ET) can be derived from satellite data using surface energy balance principles. METRIC (Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) is one of the most widely used models available in the literature to estimate ET from satellite imagery. The Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model is much easier and less expensive to implement. The main purpose of this research was to present an enhanced version of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model and to evaluate its performance using the established METRIC model. In this study, SSEB and METRIC ET fractions were compared using 7 Landsat images acquired for south central Idaho during the 2003 growing season. The enhanced SSEB model compared well with the METRIC model output exhibiting an r² improvement from 0.83 to 0.90 in less complex topography (elevation less than 2000 m) and with an improvement of r² from 0.27 to 0.38 in more complex (mountain) areas with elevation greater than 2000 m. Independent evaluation showed that both models exhibited higher variation in complex topographic regions, although more with SSEB than with METRIC. The higher ET fraction variation in the complex mountainous regions highlighted the difficulty of capturing the radiation and heat transfer physics on steep slopes having variable aspect with the simple index model, and the need to conduct more research. However, the temporal consistency of the results suggests that the SSEB model can be used on a wide range of elevation (more successfully up 2000 m) to detect anomalies in space and time for water resources management and monitoring such as for drought early warning systems in data scarce regions. SSEB has a potential for operational agro-hydrologic applications to estimate ET with inputs of surface temperature, NDVI, DEM and reference ET.     

Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the water cycle at field, regional and global scales. This study used measured data from a 30-year irrigation experiment (1979-2009) in the North China Plain (NCP) on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) to analyze the impacts of climatic factors and crop yield on ET. The results showed that grass reference evapotranspiration (ET_o, calculated by FAO Penmen-Monteith method) was relatively constant from 1979 to 2009. However, the actual seasonal ET of winter wheat and maize under well-watered condition gradually increased from the 1980s to the 2000s. The mean seasonal ET was 401.4 mm, 417.3 mm and 458.6 mm for winter wheat, and 375.7 mm, 381.1 mm and 396.2 mm for maize in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. The crop coefficient (K_c) was not constant and changed with the yield of the crops. The seasonal average K_c of winter wheat was 0.75 in the 1980s, 0.81 in the 1990s and 0.85 in the 2000s, and the corresponding average grain yield (GY) was 4790 kg ha⁻¹, 5501 kg ha⁻¹ and 6685 kg ha⁻¹. The average K_c of maize was 0.88 in the 1980s, 0.88 in the 1990s and 0.94 in the 2000s, with a GY of 5054 kg ha⁻¹, 7041 kg ha⁻¹ and 7874 kg ha⁻¹, respectively, for the three decades. The increase in ET was not in proportion to the increase in GY, resulting improved water use efficiency (WUE). The increase in ET was possibly related to the increase in leaf stomatal conductance with renewing in cultivars. The less increase in water use with more increase in grain production could be partly attributed to the significant increase in harvest index. The results showed that with new cultivars and improved management practices it was possible to further increase grain production without much increase in water use.     

Comparisons of energy balance and evapotranspiration between flooded and aerobic rice fields in the Philippines

The seasonal and annual variability of sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), evapotranspiration (ET), crop coefficient (K_c) and crop water productivity (WP_ET) were investigated under two different rice environments, flooded and aerobic soil conditions, using the eddy covariance (EC) technique during 2008-2009 cropping periods. Since we had only one EC system for monitoring two rice environments, we had to move the system from one location to the other every week. In total, we had to gap-fill an average of 50-60% of the missing weekly data as well as those values rejected by the quality control tests in each rice field in all four cropping seasons. Although the EC method provides a direct measurement of LE, which is the energy used for ET, we needed to correct the values of H and LE to close the energy balance using the Bowen ratio closure method before we used LE to estimate ET. On average, the energy balance closure before correction was 0.72 ± 0.06 and it increased to 0.99 ± 0.01 after correction. The G in both flooded and aerobic fields was very low. Likewise, the energy involved in miscellaneous processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and heat storage in the rice canopy was not taken into consideration.Average for four cropping seasons, flooded rice fields had 19% more LE than aerobic fields whereas aerobic rice fields had 45% more H than flooded fields. This resulted in a lower Bowen ratio in flooded fields (0.14 ± 0.03) than in aerobic fields (0.24 ± 0.01). For our study sites, evapotranspiration was primarily controlled by net radiation. The aerobic rice fields had lower growing season ET rates (3.81 ± 0.21 mm d⁻¹) than the flooded rice fields (4.29 ± 0.23 mm d⁻¹), most probably due to the absence of ponded water and lower leaf area index of aerobic rice. Likewise, the crop coefficient, K_c, of aerobic rice was significantly lower than that of flooded rice. For aerobic rice, K_c values were 0.95 ± 0.01 for the vegetative stage, 1.00 ± 0.01 for the reproductive stage, 0.97 ± 0.04 for the ripening stage and 0.88 ± 0.03 for the fallow period, whereas, for flooded rice, K_c values were 1.04 ± 0.04 for the vegetative stage, 1.11 ± 0.05 for the reproductive stage, 1.04 ± 0.05 for the ripening stage and 0.93 ± 0.06 for the fallow period. The average annual ET was 1301 mm for aerobic rice and 1440 mm for flooded rice. This corresponds to about 11% lower total evapotranspiration in aerobic fields than in flooded fields. However, the crop water productivity (WP_ET) of aerobic rice (0.42 ± 0.03 g grain kg⁻¹ water) was significantly lower than that of flooded rice (1.26 ± 0.26 g grain kg⁻¹ water) because the grain yields of aerobic rice were very low since they were subjected to water stress.The results of this investigation showed significant differences in energy balance and evapotranspiration between flooded and aerobic rice ecosystems. Aerobic rice is one of the promising water-saving technologies being developed to lower the water requirements of the rice crop to address the issues of water scarcity. This information should be taken into consideration in evaluating alternative water-saving technologies for environmentally sustainable rice production systems.     

Response of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) to mulching practices under planted greenhouse condition

Mulch is considered a desirable management technology for conserving soil moisture, improving soil temperature and soil quality. This study aimed to investigate soil conditions and hot pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) performance in terms of leaf photosynthetic capacity, fruit yield and quality, and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) under such practices in greenhouse condition. A field experiment across 3 years was carried out with four types of mulch (without mulch [CK], wheat straw mulch [SM], plastic film mulch [FM], and combined mulch with plastic film and wheat straw [CM]). Mulch could improve soil physical properties regardless of mulch materials. FM and CM treatments improved soil moistures status and soil temperature in comparison to CK control, while SM increased soil water content and decreased soil temperature. Mulch increased leaf net photosynthesis rate (P_N), stomatal conductance to water vapor (gs), intercellular CO₂ concentration (Ci), and transpiration rate (E), but declined instant water use efficiency (WUEi). No significant effect of mulch application on chlorophyll fluorescence was existent for the entire growth season. Fruit yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) showed some increment under all the mulch conditions. Compared to CK, the yield was enhanced by 82.3%, 65.0%, and 111.5% in 2008; 38.1%, 17.4%, and 46.5% in 2009; and 14.3%, 6.5%, and 19.6% in 2010 under SM, FM, and CM conditions, respectively. Although FM produced better fruit quality than other treatments, CM is the recommended practice for hot pepper cultivation in greenhouse condition due to working well to facilitate soil condition (moisture and temperature), plant growth, and marketable yield.